Population Projections

In May 2018, the ONS released new population estimates projected to the year 2041 by single year of age and local authority, based on the 2016 mid-year estimates. The Somerset population is projected to rise by around 73,400 (12%) over the twenty-five year period, to 624,800 (see chart below).

Projected growth amongst the 65+ age group is even greater, at around 35%, and the number of people aged 75 or more is projected to close to double over the period, to almost 117,500.

The under-16 population is projected to increase by 3% by 2041, with the great majority of this increase in the next seven years. The ‘working age’ population is projected to witness a slight (-0.5%) decline over the next twenty-five years, with most of the fall coming beyond 2026.

Between 2016 and 2041, Sedgemoor and Taunton Deane are projected to experience the highest growths in percentage terms, 16% and 14%, respectively. The projected trend totals for selected years are shown below.

Population Projections by District, 2016-2041

Source: Office for National Statistics

The Ageing Population of Somerset

The 'population pyramid' below highlights the ageing profile of Somerset residents. 

• In 1961 (see the light coloured lines), the post-war baby boom led to a 'spike' in teenagers.
• In 2013 (bars), the most populous age groups are those in their 40s, 50s and 60s
• By 2033 (darker lines), there is projected to be a bulge in the 70-79 age groups, with almost as many in their 80s as in their 20s

Comparison of the population in 2013, and local projections, show how most of Somerset, including almost all rural areas, is likely to have at least 25% of the population over 65 by 2033 (see maps below)

Proportion of population aged 65 and over, 2013

Proportion of population aged 65 and over, 2033

Note that these are trend-based projections, which means assumptions for future levels of births, deaths and migration are based on observed levels mainly over the previous five years. They show what the population will be if recent trends continue and don't take into account any policy changes that have not yet occurred (e.g Hinkley Point construction), nor those that have not yet had an impact on observed trends.

Note, too, that as the period since the latest Census increases, so will the likely inaccuracy of population estimates. Furthermore migration data, particularly international, are relatively unreliable at local levels because IPS samples are very small at small geography levels, requiring combining of areas and time periods. 

For the latest information about birth rates in Somerset, population projections for children and young people and school roll forecasts, please go to the pages below.

• Birth Rates
• Children and young people population profiles